How do we get there?

In the review of the strategic context and the needs of stakeholders and the community, council will have identified strategic options for consideration in the next planning period.

Now it is time to consider how best to implement these strategies, taking into account any likely future changes in the external or internal environment as well as any risks that may prevent council from achieving the desired outcomes.

Key steps

• Step 3.1 Conduct scenario planning activities (optional)
• Step 3.2 Evaluate strategic options
  
  

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Step 3.1 Conduct scenario planning activities (optional)

Traditional strategic planning methods try to predict the future based on past history. While this forecasting approach has merit, it does not always handle changes, times of crisis or unpredictability. Rather than using straight-line predictions from past trends, scenario planning attempts to tell stories about possible and plausible futures in which councils and the community may have to operate.

By telling stories about plausible futures, scenario planning forces decision-makers to consider their plans against a range of possible outcomes. The process allows a better understanding of the forces that drive and shape the future and can assist councils to experience and learn from a range of futures.

What is scenario planning?

Scenario planning is a structured process for setting a framework in which to build a strategy for an uncertain future. The process enables councils to map alternatives that may emerge as a result of multiple changes in any, or all aspects of the environment including political, social, technological, economic and ecological.

Scenarios are concerned with strategic thinking and can be used as a management tool to test their assumptions, design a path to a preferred future, deal with challenges and set the groundwork for effective and flexible strategic planning.

How does scenario planning differ from strategic planning?

Strategic plans are usually framed from the planners' worldviews and are often limited by their past experience and current set of beliefs, understandings or mindsets. Scenario planning opens the minds of planners to totally new ways of seeing the future, recognising opportunities and threats that are beyond their current perceptions or realisation.

Strategic planning focuses on obtaining a fit between the organisational environment and resources and often restricts strategy development, tending to create more of the same. Scenario planning provides a better understanding of innovative ways to use resources and create value. The scenario planning process creates a shared vision and a common language about the future that allows all concerned to understand how their contribution affects council and the community.

The process of scenario planning

Scenario planning is a group process designed to encourage lateral, creative thought and challenge the mindsets that may limit imagination. It follows a systematic series of steps such as that employed in the 4Seeable Futures project conducted by the Queensland Department of Transport and Queensland Department of Main Roads 2000-2025:⁹.

Checklist 13 - Conduct scenario planning

Councils seeking to conduct a scenario planning activity can adapt the example from the Queensland Department of Main Roads using the following process steps:

1. Establish a focus
2. Research the driving forces of change that impact on the future
3. Divide the driving forces into predetermined elements (ie what is inevitable, like many established demographic factors) and critical uncertainties (ie What is unpredictable or a matter of choice, such as public opinion)
4. Prioritise the critical uncertainties according to importance and uncertainty
5. Explore the patterns of interaction that explain how the driving forces could combine to determine future conditions
6. Use the preceding analysis to create scenarios - stories of future worlds that convey a range of possible outcomes
7. Identify the scenario implications, strategic options and lead indicators (the measures of change that need to be monitored on an ongoing basis).

Checklist 14 - Consider possible scenarios

Scenario planning involves asking hypothetical questions about likely futures and the impacts of possible events. For example:

• What would we do if the meatworks closed?
• What would be the effects on residents if industry trebled over the next 10 years?
• What would we do if our area becomes a popular tourist destination?
• What will happen if our young adults keep moving away to find work?
• How will council cope if we get a major influx of retirees?

Refer to Case study 10 - Scenario planning - Queensland Transport ( PDF 49 kB) to view the major findings of the project 4Seeable Futures together with a list of proposed actions.

Refer to Case study 11 - Scenario planning - City of Mandurah (WA) ( PDF 84 kB) to view the major findings of the scenario based project Mandurah - three decades of change, so what’s next? together with a list of proposed follow up actions.

Activity 1 - Identify strategies to deal with scenario implications

Using the case studies as a guide, council may decide to conduct a scenario planning activity, either as a stand alone activity, or as part of the earlier Environmental Scan and SWOT analysis. In either case, this may result in a list of strategic options that can be taken forward to the next Corporate Plan.

Examples of strategic options taken from the 4Seeable Futures project are:

• Develop an underground rail system in the Central Business District (CBD)
• Introduce a sophisticated and integrated light rail/heavy rail/bus network
• Increase travel demand based on pricing policies
• Provide multiple river crossings and major new links, and
• Increase use of sea and very fast ferries for regional, inter-regional and interstate movements.

It can be seen from these examples, that there is more work to be done to evaluate these proposals in terms of such aspects as feasibility, potential risks, opportunity costs, budget implications and their economic, social and environmental impact.

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Step 3.2 Evaluate strategic options

After completing the earlier steps in this review of strategic direction, council will have compiled a list of strategic options from the following three sources:

Now is the time to take a broader view of the strategic options that have emerged and conduct some reality testing. This will avoid embarking on strategies that are not practical or sustainable.

The methodology used by councils to evaluate their strategic options will vary according to the complexity of the proposals, competing priorities, and their capacity to respond to the particular issues faced by councils.

One approach would be to repeat the SWOT analysis process for each proposed strategy using the Guidelines and templates in Section 1.4 - Conduct a SWOT analysis. In most cases a go/no go response would be readily identified, making the evaluation process quite straightforward.

Formulation of strategies is a decision-making process and the best results are based on sound information. Council is advised to gather more information and, if warranted, seek specialist technical, legal or other professional assistance.

Using the information from the evaluation process, prepare a list of viable options for inclusion in the future plans.

Checklist 15 - Risk Assessment - Analyse merits of strategies

To analyse the merits of alternative strategies, ask the following questions:

• If this strategy is implemented, is it plausible to assume that the outcome will be reached? How would we know?
• How can we be sure this strategy will work?
• What are the risks involved with implementing this strategy?
• What are the risks if this strategy is not implemented?
• What are the opportunity costs of supporting this strategy?
• Will this strategy have a positive or negative impact on any other strategy?
• Is this strategy dependent on implementation of other strategies?
• What are the anticipated costs, benefits and budget implications for this strategy in the short and long term?
• What is the impact of this strategy in economic, environmental and social terms?
• Do we have the authority to implement this strategy? If we do not currently have the authority, will constitutional, legislative or executive authorisation be necessary? Will approval from the federal government, federal court or some other entity be required?
• Do we have the resources (people, physical facilities, training, hardware, software, other equipment, funding etc.) required to implement the strategy? If not, what would be required to secure the resources and what other areas of council would be affected?

A risk assessment format for recording responses to these questions is provided in Template 8 - Worksheet - Risk assessment ( PDF 16 kB).

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Footnotes

⁸ Some councils may find it useful to conduct scenario planning as part of the first step in the Review of Strategic Direction - for example, in conjunction with the assessment of issues and SWOT analysis.

⁹ To access this document in full, refer to: http://www.mainroads.qld.gov.au/MRWEB/prod/Content.nsf/DOCINDEX/Scenario+planning+report:+4seeable+futures/$FILE/4seeable-s12.pdf ( PDF 574 kB)

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